Ok, I admit it, I don't like making predictions, but keeping with the spirit of the season I am going to put it all on the line and state exactly how 2006, perhaps the most unpredictable year ever, will unfold. - Human beings will continue to behave, respond, provoke and speak much like, well, human beings. If we can use new technology to get a better deal, then of course we are all for it. If we can use new technology to gain the attention of our fellow humans, then again we are all for it. We want and need to be in a circle of fellow travellers, as it were. And if we can use technology to make a hard chore simple, or replace a mundane task altogether, then we are downright excited. In 2006 we will continue to snap up technologies that help us to link to other people and which promise to make our lives, whether at work or play, easier, or even less brutal. Keywords for technology in 2006 will be Service, Collaboration, Social and Innovative.
- Software is ubiquitous in our complex culture. We sometimes find ourselves longing for the simple life of the people in National Geographic specials, but without the intense poverty and physical hardship. Software is ever present at work, home and play; however, it is neither a commodity nor a utility. Oddly, it is still the product of highly paid artisans, regardless of where they work, and its price still reflects the specialized knowledge and work habits that are required to produce it. We have been working for the better part of 50 years to realize the gains, opportunities, and advantages of software but avoid the price, to little avail. We will adopt several new technologies in 2006, all of which will be expensive but will offer unique and useful value. We will see marginal reductions in the price of software, mostly in those software products that have lost some of their shine with use. But we are ready as always to spend for innovation, especially when it offers some competitive advantage. Keywords for 2006 are Utility, Spend, Innovation and On-demand.
- Security. We need security and in 2006 the whispers about the Internet and its security are going to rise to the level of polite conversation. The thread of all this commentary will be New Internets, yes plural. New in the sense of technology and new in the sense of participation. Human beings are a lot that appreciates hierarchy and as more and more people and businesses depend on the Internet for important tasks and processes, there will be a corresponding desire for an Internet that is secured and locked down for their use. I expect to hear a lot about this. Keywords are security, security and security.
There you have it. My 3 wild predictions for the New Year. On the safe side, I know, but that's the way astrology works. Anecdote. There was an article published by The Wall Street Journal in the early 1990s about companies that were reigning in the use of cellphones by their sales teams because of the enormous costs associated with the service at that time. Can you imagine a company today with sales people on the road without cellphones? Certainly the price of cellphones and cell plans has fallen, but they're not really priced as commodities, are they? Technology often works in this way. It has the amazing talent of transforming itself into ever more interesting forms which attract adoption and resources. Individuals and businesses will continue to look to technology to transform themselves in 2006, and they will pay handsomely. |
